Holdem variance calculator
Variance effects poker players in different ways, so it's important to have a good grasp of this concept. Learn more about variance at MODUS-OPERANDI.INFO As an example, the SNG Calculator's Risky number is based on playing at 70% of the Kelly level, Moving up slowly helps with confidence, cuts variance. The ups and downs of poker are often collectively known as variance. But what is it and how is it calculated? And how can poker players deal with variance?
Tournament Variance Calculator
Very good live cash game players have no variance problems The example we just went through shows that after a few months of play a good live cash-game player can expect to simply outlast any negative variance he might encounter along the way. In statistical terms, variance is used to examine the differences between an individual result and the average for a set of results. Click on Calculate and the Poker Variance Calculator does its magic. The Risky number is the bare minimum that you can play with, and playing at this level will make it more likely that you need to move up and down in stakes. You might be playing out-of-your-skin poker but still lose money, which makes it frustratingly difficult to analyse what you might be doing right and what you might be doing wrong. Variance and Playing Styles In a previous piece, we examined the four primary playing styles loose-passive, loose-aggressive, tight-passive and tight-aggressive. The emotional roller coaster that comes with big swings in variance can also affect how a player approaches the game.
Poker Variance Calculator
Enter your tournament s , hit calculate and let the simulator do its magic. An explanation how this simulator works can be found below. In case the initialization timed out: Let's go through an example simulation. Let's say you're playing the Sunday Million regularly and want to check what variance you can expect.
That's how the settings can look like: Number of players for the tournament. How many places get paid. Standard payout tables are used. You can also choose satellite structures. In any currency you fancy — buyin must be greater than zero. In percent, any value above is ok. How many tournaments should be simulated. How many samples should be simulated - higher numbers yield more accurate results, but also take longer to compute. Click on Calculate and the Poker Variance Calculator does its magic.
It simulates whatever tournament schedule you have entered over as many samples as you have entered. In the example above it would simulate 50 Sunday Millions 10, times.
Distribution Poker Tournament Variance Calculator Diagram This distribution shows the cumulative likelihood function for the results. By clicking the the "N"-Button inside the diagram you can compare the distribution to how a normal distribution with the same expected value and standard deviation as the original distribution would look like.
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Hearthstone Simulator Poker Variance Calculator This variance calculator and simulator for poker is handy and easy to use. Just enter your winrate, standard deviation and the amount of hands to simulate. You'll most certainly get insightful results. Read below how to use this simulator. Best and worst run out of trials Variance in numbers Hands: Depending on the number of hands displayed, the extent and number of downswings may be underrepresented due to the resolution of the graph.
This section will explain how the calculator works and what the numbers and charts mean. You can ignore the field observed winrate, we'll get to its purpose later. Once you have entered the data, hit Calculate and the let the Calculator do its magic. It'll also calculate the expected winnings over the amount of hands. This number will appear as a rather boring straight and black line in the graph. They basically show, how much variance you should expect to see. Variance in numbers Below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: This number shows by how much your actual results will differ from the expected results on average.
Probability of loss after X hands: If you entered an observed winrate, this number will show you the probability that you will experience a run at or above this winrate over the amount of hands. Probability of running below observed win rate …: You can choose how many hands to simulate by moving the slider. Apart from showing a single sample, this graph also shows some insightful information about downswings.
The red area shows for any given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it tracks downswings. This chart uses two vertical axes. While the sample winnings have their scale on the right axis, the downswing tracker has its scale on the left axis. In this example the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25, big blinds after 2.
Downswings in numbers The last section of the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on potential downswings. Therefor million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked.
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